← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Massimiliano Irrati, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 79% | 76% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 20% | 6.86 | value: +34% |
| Chievo win | 6% | 5% | 14.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Riccardo Meggiorini · Chievo |
| 28' | 🟨 | Marten de Roon · Atalanta BC |
| 32' | ⚽ | Riccardo Meggiorini · Chievo |
| 35' | 🟨 | Assane Dioussé · Chievo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Përparim Hetemaj · Chievo |
| 55' | ⚽ | Josip Iličić · Atalanta BC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Boštjan Cesar · Chievo |
| 74' | 🟨 | Marco Andreolli · Chievo |
| 74' | 🟨 | Fabio Depaoli · Chievo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Emanuele Giaccherini · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 24 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.38 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia |
| coach days | 1019.00 | 136.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1802.43 | 1526.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.58 | -22.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.63 | -0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 44.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| league points | 44.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 0.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.22 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.18 | 28.25 |
| state index | 0.73 | -0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.78 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |