← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 46% | 51% | 2.11 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.14 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 23% | 21% | 4.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ (og) | Erick Pulgar · Torino FC |
| 11' | 🟨 | Daniele Baselli · Torino FC |
| 29' | ⚽ | Andrea Poli · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 34' | ⚽ (pen) | Erick Pulgar · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 41' | 🟨 | Roberto Soriano · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 50' | 🟨 | Nicola Sansone · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 59' | 🟨 | Lyanco · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 64' | ⚽ | Riccardo Orsolini · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 75' | 🟨 | Nicolas N'Koulou · Torino FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Lyanco · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 88' | 🟥 | Lyanco · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 89' | ⚽ | Armando Izzo · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Álex Berenguer · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ola Aina · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Ola Aina · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| coach days |
| 439.00 |
| 74.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1690.47 | 1461.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.03 | 3.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.65 |
| league points | 44.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| state index | 1.16 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |