← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Rocchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 44% | 62% | 2.21 | value: +36% ⚠ |
| Draw | 30% | 21% | 3.30 | fair |
| Spal win | 26% | 17% | 3.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Francesco Vicari · Spal |
| 22' | ⚽ | Mohamed Fares · Spal |
| 40' | 🟨 | Steven N'Zonzi · AS Roma |
| 45' | 🟨 | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 52' | 🟨 | Thiago Cionek · Spal |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Diego Perotti · AS Roma |
| 54' | 🟨 | Mohamed Fares · Spal |
| 57' | 🟨 | Juan Jesus · AS Roma |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrea Petagna · Spal |
| 63' | 🟨 | Diego Perotti · AS Roma |
| 64' | 🟨 | Simone Missiroli · Spal |
| 69' | 🟨 | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spal | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| venue | Stadio Paolo Mazza |
| coach days |
| 1566.00 |
| 15.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1491.80 | 1757.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.17 | -4.71 |
| eye test v1 | -1.04 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.70 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.63 |
| league points | 23.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 24.55 |
| state index | -1.06 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |