← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Federico Dionisi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 41% | 42% | 2.38 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 30% | 27% | 3.28 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Grégoire Defrel · Sampdoria |
| 36' | ⚽ | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 38' | ⚽ | Jérémie Boga · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 39' | ⚽ | Karol Linetty · Sampdoria |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alfred Duncan · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 46' | ⚽ | Dennis Praet · Sampdoria |
| 48' | 🟨 | Manolo Gabbiadini · Sampdoria |
| 63' | ⚽ | Alfred Duncan · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 72' | ⚽ | Manolo Gabbiadini · Sampdoria |
| 90' | ⚽ | Khouma Babacar · US Sassuolo Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 11 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 258.00 | 988.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1649.68 | 1700.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.71 | -16.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.96 | 0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| league points | 32.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.04 | 0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 27.72 | 26.60 |
| state index | -0.46 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.99 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |