← Serie A 2018-19 · Mon, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Maresca, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 63% | 62% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.46 | value: +8% |
| Empoli win | 15% | 14% | 6.59 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
| 12' | 🟨 | Alessandro Florenzi · AS Roma |
| 12' | ⚽ (og) | Juan Jesus · Empoli |
| 13' | 🟨 | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
| 33' | ⚽ | Patrik Schick · AS Roma |
| 37' | 🟨 | Afriyie Acquah · Empoli |
| 62' | 🟨 | Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
| 80' | 🟨 | Alessandro Florenzi · AS Roma |
| 80' | 🟥 | Alessandro Florenzi · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 4 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.85 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.34 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1754.44 | 1521.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.62 | 0.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.66 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| league points | 44.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.24 | — |
| state index | 0.66 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |