← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Piero Giacomelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 46% | 52% | 2.12 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 31% | 24% | 3.12 | fair |
| Frosinone Calcio win | 23% | 24% | 4.29 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Marco Capuano · Frosinone Calcio |
| 30' | 🟨 | Tomás Rincón · Torino FC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Soualiho Meïté · Torino FC |
| 42' | ⚽ | Luca Paganini · Frosinone Calcio |
| 56' | ⚽ | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Camillo Ciano · Frosinone Calcio |
| 77' | ⚽ | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Simone Zaza · Torino FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Ola Aina · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frosinone Calcio | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Benito Stirpe |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 99.00 | 433.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.00 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1494.40 | 1684.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.84 | 27.37 |
| eye test v1 | -1.26 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.10 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.88 |
| league points | 17.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.14 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.57 | 0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |