← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Massimiliano Irrati, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 49% | 51% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.29 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 22% | 20% | 4.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ (pen) | Erick Pulgar · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 51' | 🟨 | Blerim Džemaili · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 51' | 🟨 | Nicolò Barella · Cagliari Calcio |
| 51' | 🟨 | Filip Bradarić · Cagliari Calcio |
| 57' | 🟨 | Darijo Srna · Cagliari Calcio |
| 70' | 🟨 | Luca Pellegrini · Cagliari Calcio |
| 77' | ⚽ | Roberto Soriano · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 21 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 68.00 | 252.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.45 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1548.00 | 1596.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.67 | 6.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.00 | -0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 49.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| league points | 18.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.48 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 27.45 | 27.39 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |