← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luca Sacchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 35% | 38% | 2.78 | value: +6% |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 33% | 30% | 2.98 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.04 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | 🟨 | Ivan Radovanović · Genoa CFC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Matteo Scozzarella · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 78' | ⚽ | Juraj Kucka · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 85' | 🟨 | Bruno Alves · Parma Calcio 1913 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Parma Calcio 1913 | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Ennio Tardini |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 828.00 | 98.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1534.57 | 1520.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.72 | 9.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.79 |
| league points | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.22 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.85 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.15 | -0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |