← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca J. Pairetto, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 56% | 62% | 1.74 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 28% | 20% | 3.50 | fair |
| Chievo win | 16% | 18% | 5.98 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Lucas Biglia · AC Milan |
| 41' | ⚽ | Përparim Hetemaj · Chievo |
| 52' | 🟨 | Andrea Conti · AC Milan |
| 57' | ⚽ | Krzysztof Piątek · AC Milan |
| 59' | 🟨 | Emanuele Giaccherini · Chievo |
| 71' | 🟨 | Stefano Sorrentino · Chievo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Përparim Hetemaj · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 20 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 128.00 | 493.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1427.79 | 1727.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.14 | 39.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | 0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 41.20 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.91 |
| league points | 13.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | 0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | — | 23.29 |
| state index | -0.88 | 1.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |