← Serie A 2018-19 · Fri, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Chiffi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 67% | 76% | 1.45 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 23% | 17% | 4.26 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 11% | 7% | 9.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Moise Kean · Juventus FC |
| 27' | 🟨 | Jens Stryger Larsen · Udinese Calcio |
| 39' | ⚽ | Moise Kean · Juventus FC |
| 50' | 🟨 | Ignacio Pussetto · Udinese Calcio |
| 53' | 🟨 | Nicholas Opoku · Udinese Calcio |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Emre Can · Juventus FC |
| 71' | ⚽ | Blaise Matuidi · Juventus FC |
| 84' | ⚽ | Kevin Lasagna · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 1711.00 | 7.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.11 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1974.94 | 1493.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.45 | 3.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.75 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.74 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 66.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.76 |
| league points | 72.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.77 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.96 | -1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.38 | 25.98 |
| state index | 1.62 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | -1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |