← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Rocchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 38% | 50% | 2.56 | value: +27% |
| Juventus FC win | 31% | 22% | 3.14 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟥 | Alex Meret · SSC Napoli |
| 28' | ⚽ | Miralem Pjanić · Juventus FC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Miralem Pjanić · Juventus FC |
| 39' | ⚽ | Emre Can · Juventus FC |
| 47' | 🟨 | Miralem Pjanić · Juventus FC |
| 47' | 🟥 | Miralem Pjanić · Juventus FC |
| 54' | 🟨 | João Cancelo · Juventus FC |
| 61' | ⚽ | José Callejón · SSC Napoli |
| 77' | 🟨 | Nikola Maksimović · SSC Napoli |
| 83' | 🟨 | Alex Sandro · Juventus FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Kalidou Koulibaly · SSC Napoli |
| 89' | 🟨 | Allan · SSC Napoli |
| 89' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Bentancur · Juventus FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| coach days | 306.00 | 1706.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.29 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.08 | 4.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1855.85 | 1966.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.16 | 3.12 |
| eye test v1 | 1.26 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.68 |
| league points | 56.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.24 | 2.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.87 | 1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.16 | 28.38 |
| state index | 1.53 | 1.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.90 | 0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |