← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Valeri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 62% | 63% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.96 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 14% | 15% | 7.10 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | ⚽ (og) | Pol Lirola · AC Milan |
| 37' | 🟨 | Tiemoué Bakayoko · AC Milan |
| 51' | 🟨 | Lucas Paquetá · AC Milan |
| 64' | 🟥 | Andrea Consigli · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ricardo Rodríguez · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 20 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.55 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 486.00 | 244.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 3.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1723.06 | 1548.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.14 | -13.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.97 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.68 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.91 | 0.54 |
| league points | 45.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.93 | 1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 23.45 | — |
| state index | 1.18 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | 0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |