← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 41% | 38% | 2.39 | fair |
| AS Roma win | 31% | 35% | 3.13 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Juan Jesus · AS Roma |
| 12' | ⚽ | Felipe Caicedo · SS Lazio |
| 55' | 🟨 | Senad Lulić · SS Lazio |
| 72' | 🟨 | Federico Fazio · AS Roma |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 77' | 🟨 | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 89' | ⚽ | Danilo Cataldi · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ştefan Radu · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Danilo Cataldi · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Kolarov · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Kolarov · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟥 | Aleksandar Kolarov · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 1065.00 | 1.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.29 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1736.03 | 1875.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.65 | 8.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | 0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.53 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| league points | 38.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 9.92 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.97 | 29.46 |
| state index | 0.21 | 1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |