← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Maresca, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 48% | 49% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.45 | fair |
| Spal win | 23% | 24% | 4.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Mattia Valoti · Spal |
| 43' | ⚽ | Federico Peluso · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 58' | 🟨 | Federico Peluso · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 67' | 🟨 | Francesco Magnanelli · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrea Petagna · Spal |
| 89' | 🟨 | Alfred Duncan · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rogério · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | 🟥 | Alfred Duncan · US Sassuolo Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 5 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| venue | Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore |
| coach days | 238.00 | 1546.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 2.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1551.82 | 1502.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.33 | -5.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.64 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.62 |
| league points | 30.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.91 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |