← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Chiffi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 72% | 71% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 17% | 5.13 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 9% | 12% | 10.88 | value: +34% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Piotr Zieliński · SSC Napoli |
| 28' | 🟨 | Luca Rigoni · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 36' | ⚽ | Arkadiusz Milik · SSC Napoli |
| 38' | 🟨 | Arkadiusz Milik · SSC Napoli |
| 73' | ⚽ | Arkadiusz Milik · SSC Napoli |
| 82' | ⚽ | Adam Ounas · SSC Napoli |
| 85' | 🟨 | Riccardo Gagliolo · Parma Calcio 1913 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Parma Calcio 1913 | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Ennio Tardini |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 815.00 | 299.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 3.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1540.40 | 1848.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.95 | 3.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | 1.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| league points | 29.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.40 | 62.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 2.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.25 | 1.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.16 |
| state index | -0.53 | 1.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.00 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |