← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Volpi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 38% | 39% | 2.55 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 28% | 3.09 | fair |
| Chievo win | 30% | 33% | 3.23 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Lukas Lerager · Genoa CFC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Sofian Kiyine · Chievo |
| 84' | 🟨 | Përparim Hetemaj · Chievo |
| 84' | 🟨 | Christian Kouamé · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Davide Biraschi · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 20 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 115.00 | 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1432.00 | 1524.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.49 | 22.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | 0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.30 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| league points | 12.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | -0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.89 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | -1.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |