← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Manganiello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 68% | 68% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 4.73 | fair |
| Frosinone Calcio win | 11% | 12% | 8.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Camillo Ciano · Frosinone Calcio |
| 30' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 31' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 39' | 🟨 | Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
| 42' | 🟨 | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 68' | 🟨 | Edoardo Goldaniga · Frosinone Calcio |
| 78' | 🟨 | Francesco Cassata · Frosinone Calcio |
| 80' | ⚽ | Andrea Pinamonti · Frosinone Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frosinone Calcio | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Benito Stirpe |
| coach days | 84.00 | 632.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1557.19 | 1872.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.29 | 10.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | 0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.10 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| league points | 16.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.64 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 27.28 | 27.65 |
| state index | -0.28 | 1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |