← Serie A 2018-19 · Fri, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Piero Giacomelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 66% | 62% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 27% | 4.35 | value: +19% |
| Empoli win | 12% | 10% | 7.97 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 49' | ⚽ | Krzysztof Piątek · AC Milan |
| 51' | ⚽ | Franck Kessié · AC Milan |
| 55' | 🟨 | Giovanni Di Lorenzo · Empoli |
| 67' | ⚽ | Samu Castillejo · AC Milan |
| 71' | 🟨 | Hakan Çalhanoğlu · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 4 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 478.00 | 113.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1716.25 | 1529.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.61 | -9.83 |
| eye test v1 | 0.86 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.92 | 0.59 |
| league points | 42.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.89 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 23.28 | — |
| state index | 1.03 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |