← Serie A 2018-19 · Mon, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 69% | 72% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 15% | 4.85 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 11% | 13% | 8.75 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Danilo · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 24' | 🟨 | Erick Pulgar · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 34' | 🟨 | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
| 40' | 🟨 | Alessandro Florenzi · AS Roma |
| 43' | 🟨 | Simone Edera · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Aleksandar Kolarov · AS Roma |
| 73' | ⚽ | Federico Fazio · AS Roma |
| 84' | ⚽ | Nicola Sansone · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Manolas · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mitchell Dijks · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 10 |
| 9 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 627.00 | 48.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 3.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.28 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1870.13 | 1558.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.24 | -5.54 |
| eye test v1 | 1.11 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| league points | 38.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.70 | 27.75 |
| state index | 1.40 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |