← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Valeri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 49% | 56% | 1.98 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.22 | fair |
| Chievo win | 21% | 17% | 4.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Mehdi Léris · Chievo |
| 58' | 🟨 | Fabio Depaoli · Chievo |
| 65' | 🟨 | Ignacio Pussetto · Udinese Calcio |
| 70' | 🟨 | Bram Nuytinck · Udinese Calcio |
| 75' | 🟨 | Seko Fofana · Udinese Calcio |
| 84' | 🟨 | Filip Đorđević · Chievo |
| 85' | 🟨 | Emanuele Giaccherini · Chievo |
| 85' | ⚽ | Łukasz Teodorczyk · Udinese Calcio |
| 87' | 🟨 | Łukasz Teodorczyk · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marvin Zeegelaar · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 9 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 21 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| coach days | 108.00 | 108.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1478.79 | 1439.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.49 | -0.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.20 | 45.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| league points | 19.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 0.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.98 | — |
| state index | -0.42 | -0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.86 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |