← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 38% | 33% | 2.59 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 34% | 40% | 2.87 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | Rade Krunić · Empoli |
| 37' | ⚽ | Afriyie Acquah · Empoli |
| 57' | 🟨 | Stefano Sensi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 60' | ⚽ | Diego Farias · Empoli |
| 65' | 🟨 | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 71' | 🟨 | Manuel Pasqual · Empoli |
| 84' | 🟨 | Mehdi Bourabia · US Sassuolo Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 108.00 | 231.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.35 | 4.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1512.35 | 1569.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.36 | -2.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| league points | 18.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.85 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |