← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Guida, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 55% | 56% | 1.77 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.52 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 17% | 20% | 5.60 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Ola Aina · Torino FC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Saša Lukić · Torino FC |
| 65' | 🟨 | Rodrigo De Paul · Udinese Calcio |
| 74' | 🟨 | Koffi Djidji · Torino FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Sebastien De Maio · Udinese Calcio |
| 86' | 🟨 | William Troost-Ekong · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sebastien De Maio · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟥 | Sebastien De Maio · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 21 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.12 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.15 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| coach days | 405.00 | 101.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1654.44 | 1482.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.78 | -0.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 68.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| league points | 31.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.98 |
| state index | 0.61 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |