← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Livio Marinelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 63% | 66% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 4.07 | fair |
| Frosinone Calcio win | 14% | 14% | 7.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Daniel Ciofani · Frosinone Calcio |
| 30' | 🟨 | Francesco Cassata · Frosinone Calcio |
| 35' | 🟨 | Júnior Tavares · Sampdoria |
| 45' | 🟨 | Camillo Ciano · Frosinone Calcio |
| 55' | 🟨 | Manolo Gabbiadini · Sampdoria |
| 77' | 🟨 | Karol Linetty · Sampdoria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marco Sportiello · Frosinone Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 3 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Frosinone Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 954.00 | 71.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1616.68 | 1482.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.51 | -2.42 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| league points | 33.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.64 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 22.98 | — |
| state index | 0.46 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |