← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Federico La Penna, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 66% | 71% | 1.47 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 23% | 18% | 4.27 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 11% | 11% | 8.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ (og) | Luca Ceppitelli · AC Milan |
| 22' | ⚽ | Lucas Paquetá · AC Milan |
| 62' | ⚽ | Krzysztof Piątek · AC Milan |
| 75' | 🟨 | Paolo Faragò · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 466.00 | 224.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1782.23 | 1583.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.04 | -24.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.77 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.90 | 0.77 |
| league points | 36.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.53 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 23.93 | 27.43 |
| state index | 0.84 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |