← Serie A 2018-19 · Fri, Feb 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rosario Abisso, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 63% | 64% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.51 | fair |
| Chievo win | 15% | 13% | 6.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
| 14' | 🟨 | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
| 17' | 🟨 | Nicolò Zaniolo · AS Roma |
| 18' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 21' | 🟨 | Federico Barba · Chievo |
| 51' | ⚽ | Aleksandar Kolarov · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 9 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 99.00 | 617.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1445.72 | 1762.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.72 | 18.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 1.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.56 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.60 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.68 |
| league points | 12.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.55 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.67 |
| state index | -0.62 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |