← Serie A 2018-19 · Thu, Feb 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Chiffi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 68% | 74% | 1.42 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 4.85 | fair |
| Empoli win | 12% | 9% | 8.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Felipe Caicedo · SS Lazio |
| 89' | 🟨 | Afriyie Acquah · Empoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro Neto · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 3 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 1042.00 | 98.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 3.24 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1676.81 | 1516.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.72 | -39.72 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| league points | 35.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.54 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.27 | — |
| state index | 0.48 | -0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |