← Serie A 2018-19 · Mon, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Fabbri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 71% | 67% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 20% | 5.28 | value: +4% |
| Frosinone Calcio win | 11% | 13% | 8.98 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Marco Parolo · SS Lazio |
| 36' | ⚽ | Felipe Caicedo · SS Lazio |
| 44' | 🟨 | Felipe Caicedo · SS Lazio |
| 61' | 🟨 | Lucas Leiva · SS Lazio |
| 66' | 🟨 | Camillo Ciano · Frosinone Calcio |
| 80' | 🟨 | Thomas Strakosha · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Riza Durmisi · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frosinone Calcio | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Benito Stirpe |
| coach days | 65.00 | 1039.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1489.56 | 1670.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | 1.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| league points | 13.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.62 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.55 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.27 |
| state index | -0.26 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |