← Serie A 2018-19 · Mon, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Valeri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 60% | 55% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.37 | value: +10% |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 17% | 19% | 5.61 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 50' | ⚽ | Hans Hateboer · Atalanta BC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Mario Pašalić · Atalanta BC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Etrit Berisha · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Sardegna Arena |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 218.00 | 978.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.27 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1589.69 | 1804.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.54 | 11.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | 1.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.60 |
| league points | 21.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 61.20 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | 1.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 27.90 | 27.10 |
| state index | -0.42 | 1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |