← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 38% | 42% | 2.56 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 33% | 26% | 2.98 | fair |
| Spal win | 29% | 32% | 3.35 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Cristian Ansaldi · Torino FC |
| 6' | 🟨 | Simone Missiroli · Spal |
| 33' | 🟨 | Nicolas N'Koulou · Torino FC |
| 35' | 🟨 | Thiago Cionek · Spal |
| 61' | 🟨 | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 65' | 🟨 | Nicolas N'Koulou · Torino FC |
| 65' | 🟥 | Nicolas N'Koulou · Torino FC |
| 67' | 🟨 | Simone Zaza · Torino FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Felipe · Spal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jasmin Kurtić · Spal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mohamed Fares · Spal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 5 |
| 1 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 6 |
| 24 | Fouls | 27 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spal | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Paolo Mazza |
| coach days | 1525.00 | 398.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1517.74 | 1656.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.42 | 19.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| league points | 21.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.54 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |