← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Maresca, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 42% | 45% | 2.30 | value: +4% |
| AC Milan win | 29% | 27% | 3.37 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Manolas · AS Roma |
| 21' | 🟨 | Nicolò Zaniolo · AS Roma |
| 26' | ⚽ | Krzysztof Piątek · AC Milan |
| 39' | 🟨 | Suso · AC Milan |
| 46' | ⚽ | Nicolò Zaniolo · AS Roma |
| 53' | 🟨 | Lucas Paquetá · AC Milan |
| 63' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 72' | 🟨 | Franck Kessié · AC Milan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Davide Calabria · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 612.00 | 459.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.96 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1867.63 | 1778.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.81 | 1.58 |
| eye test v1 | 1.11 | 0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.87 |
| league points | 34.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | 1.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.39 | 23.83 |
| state index | 1.28 | 0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |