← Serie A 2018-19 · Mon, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Federico La Penna, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 39% | 38% | 2.48 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 31% | 36% | 3.10 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Christian Kouamé · Genoa CFC |
| 39' | 🟨 | Daniel Bessa · Genoa CFC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Esteban Rolón · Genoa CFC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jacob Rasmussen · Empoli |
| 63' | ⚽ | Giovanni Di Lorenzo · Empoli |
| 70' | ⚽ | Darko Lazović · Genoa CFC |
| 73' | ⚽ | Antonio Sanabria · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 88.00 | 58.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1540.09 | 1491.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.50 | 2.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| league points | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.20 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.55 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.05 | -0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.73 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.92 | -1.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |