← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rosario Abisso, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 42% | 35% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.11 | fair |
| Spal win | 27% | 38% | 3.61 | value: +36% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Juraj Kucka · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 11' | ⚽ (pen) | Roberto Inglese · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 34' | 🟨 | Mohamed Fares · Spal |
| 36' | 🟨 | Matteo Scozzarella · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 53' | ⚽ | Roberto Inglese · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 57' | 🟨 | Manuel Lazzari · Spal |
| 70' | ⚽ | Mattia Valoti · Spal |
| 75' | ⚽ | Andrea Petagna · Spal |
| 76' | 🟨 | Andrea Petagna · Spal |
| 87' | ⚽ | Mohamed Fares · Spal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Felipe · Spal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 10 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Parma Calcio 1913 | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Ennio Tardini |
| coach days | 787.00 | 1518.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1562.56 | 1504.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.66 | -15.77 |
| eye test v1 | -1.50 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.60 |
| league points | 28.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.40 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.07 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |