← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Chiffi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 52% | 57% | 1.88 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.37 | fair |
| Chievo win | 19% | 16% | 5.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Luis Muriel · ACF Fiorentina |
| 19' | 🟨 | Marco Benassi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 25' | 🟨 | Emanuele Giaccherini · Chievo |
| 26' | ⚽ | Marco Benassi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 27' | 🟨 | Stefano Sorrentino · Chievo |
| 38' | ⚽ | Mariusz Stępiński · Chievo |
| 47' | 🟨 | Nicola Rigoni · Chievo |
| 59' | 🟥 | Marco Benassi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Sergio Pellissier · Chievo |
| 79' | ⚽ | Federico Chiesa · ACF Fiorentina |
| 86' | ⚽ | Federico Chiesa · ACF Fiorentina |
| 89' | ⚽ | Filip Đorđević · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 87.00 | 605.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1448.24 | 1642.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.68 | 3.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.70 |
| league points | 11.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.55 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | 0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.31 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |