← Serie A 2018-19 · Mon, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Orsato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 40% | 41% | 2.46 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.18 | value: +3% |
| Genoa CFC win | 30% | 27% | 3.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Fabio Borini · AC Milan |
| 41' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero · Genoa CFC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Patrick Cutrone · AC Milan |
| 58' | 🟨 | Lucas Paquetá · AC Milan |
| 69' | 🟨 | Esteban Rolón · Genoa CFC |
| 72' | ⚽ | Fabio Borini · AC Milan |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ervin Zukanović · Genoa CFC |
| 83' | ⚽ | Suso · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 51.00 | 446.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 3.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1604.75 | 1764.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.52 | -37.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | 0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 65.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.82 |
| league points | 20.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 60.80 |
| rest days | 23.00 | 23.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.55 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.30 | 1.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 24.42 | 25.60 |
| state index | 0.26 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.26 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |