← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Chiffi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 66% | 63% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.62 | fair |
| Frosinone Calcio win | 13% | 16% | 7.56 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Gianluca Mancini · Atalanta BC |
| 44' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Atalanta BC |
| 47' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Atalanta BC |
| 64' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Atalanta BC |
| 73' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Atalanta BC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Paolo Ghiglione · Frosinone Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luca Matarese · Frosinone Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 5 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frosinone Calcio | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 |
| venue | Stadio Benito Stirpe |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 50.00 | 963.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.25 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1479.17 | 1701.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.50 | 17.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.64 |
| league points | 10.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 22.00 | 22.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.53 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | 0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.47 |
| state index | -0.83 | 0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.31 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |