← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabrizio Pasqua, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 49% | 46% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.56 | fair |
| Empoli win | 24% | 28% | 4.05 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | ⚽ | Leonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari Calcio |
| 70' | ⚽ | Giovanni Di Lorenzo · Empoli |
| 81' | ⚽ | Miha Zajc · Empoli |
| 90' | ⚽ | Diego Farias · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Sardegna Arena |
| coach days | 203.00 | 80.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1499.21 | 1539.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.62 | -38.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| league points | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 36.60 |
| rest days | 22.00 | 22.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 0.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.00 | -0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.27 | -0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |