← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 37% | 39% | 2.66 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 33% | 34% | 3.00 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 31% | 27% | 3.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 4 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| 3.80 |
| coach days | 58.00 | 181.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.01 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1589.37 | 1616.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.04 | 2.43 |
| eye test v1 | -1.80 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.30 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.74 |
| league points | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.75 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.99 | 29.44 |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |