← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rosario Abisso, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 66% | 63% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.15 | fair |
| Spal win | 11% | 15% | 8.97 | value: +34% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Andrea Petagna · Spal |
| 16' | ⚽ | Samu Castillejo · AC Milan |
| 51' | 🟨 | Jasmin Kurtić · Spal |
| 56' | 🟨 | Samu Castillejo · AC Milan |
| 64' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Higuaín · AC Milan |
| 70' | 🟨 | Pasquale Schiattarella · Spal |
| 73' | 🟨 | Cristián Zapata · AC Milan |
| 79' | 🟨 | Suso · AC Milan |
| 89' | 🟨 | Suso · AC Milan |
| 89' | 🟥 | Suso · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 423.00 | 1489.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1759.73 | 1593.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -45.13 | -5.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.65 |
| league points | 28.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.45 | 1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 24.41 | 27.90 |
| state index | 0.12 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |