← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Davide Massa, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 37% | 32% | 2.66 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 33% | 35% | 2.97 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.20 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 68' | 🟨 | Cristiano Biraghi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 75' | 🟨 | Krzysztof Piątek · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Darko Lazović · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 21 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 28.00 | 576.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1499.18 | 1647.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.37 | 0.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.57 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| league points | 19.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.55 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.75 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.26 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.53 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |