← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Federico La Penna, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 66% | 64% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.67 | fair |
| Empoli win | 13% | 16% | 7.29 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 68' | 🟨 | Lautaro Martínez · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 72' | ⚽ | Keita Baldé · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ismaël Bennacer · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 4 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | FC Internazionale Milano |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Carlo Castellani |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 58.00 | 576.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1545.71 | 1744.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.39 | 7.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| league points | 16.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | 1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.09 |
| state index | -0.62 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |