← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Rocchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chievo win | 49% | 37% | 1.97 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.24 | value: +3% |
| Frosinone Calcio win | 21% | 32% | 4.72 | value: +49% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Crisetig · Frosinone Calcio |
| 46' | 🟨 | Sergio Pellissier · Chievo |
| 49' | 🟨 | Andrea Pinamonti · Frosinone Calcio |
| 50' | 🟨 | Emanuele Giaccherini · Chievo |
| 58' | 🟨 | Marco Capuano · Frosinone Calcio |
| 58' | 🟨 | Marco Capuano · Frosinone Calcio |
| 58' | 🟥 | Marco Capuano · Frosinone Calcio |
| 63' | 🟨 | Mattia Bani · Chievo |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ivan Radovanović · Chievo |
| 69' | 🟨 | Camillo Ciano · Frosinone Calcio |
| 74' | 🟨 | Andrea Beghetto · Frosinone Calcio |
| 76' | ⚽ | Emanuele Giaccherini · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 20 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | Frosinone Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 58.00 | 28.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1439.81 | 1488.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.76 | -14.38 |
| eye test v1 | -1.12 | 0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.75 |
| league points | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.20 |
| state index | -1.13 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | -1.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |