← Serie A 2018-19 · Wed, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Maresca, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 55% | 57% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.66 | fair |
| Empoli win | 19% | 18% | 5.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Tomás Rincón · Torino FC |
| 42' | 🟨 | Frédéric Veseli · Empoli |
| 44' | ⚽ | Nicolas N'Koulou · Torino FC |
| 49' | ⚽ | Lorenzo De Silvestri · Torino FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Matías Silvestre · Empoli |
| 70' | 🟨 | Giovanni Di Lorenzo · Empoli |
| 75' | ⚽ | Iago Falque · Torino FC |
| 89' | 🟥 | Rade Krunić · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| coach days | 359.00 | 55.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1637.65 | 1556.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.92 | -9.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 66.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 23.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.29 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | -1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |