← Serie A 2018-19 · Wed, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Giua, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 60% | 55% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.79 | fair |
| Chievo win | 15% | 21% | 6.61 | value: +36% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 47' | ⚽ | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 56' | 🟨 | Joachim Andersen · Sampdoria |
| 59' | ⚽ | Gastón Ramírez · Sampdoria |
| 74' | 🟨 | Boštjan Cesar · Chievo |
| 84' | 🟨 | Gastón Ramírez · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 22 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 908.00 | 55.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 9.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1605.18 | 1446.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 44.04 | 29.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | -1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.54 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.65 |
| league points | 26.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 17.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 37.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 0.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.28 | -1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 22.98 | — |
| state index | 0.80 | -0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.30 | -0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |