← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca Banti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 37% | 41% | 2.62 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 32% | 33% | 3.08 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 31% | 26% | 3.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Tomás Rincón · Torino FC |
| 54' | ⚽ | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Rogério · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 76' | 🟨 | Armando Izzo · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enrico Brignola · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Saša Lukić · Torino FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Enrico Brignola · US Sassuolo Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 |
| venue | Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 174.00 | 355.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.66 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1578.48 | 1637.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.49 | -11.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.66 |
| league points | 24.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.89 | 0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.91 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |