← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Federico La Penna, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 81% | 85% | 1.19 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 11% | 7.47 | fair |
| Spal win | 6% | 4% | 16.85 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Thiago Cionek · Spal |
| 45' | ⚽ | Raúl Albiol · SSC Napoli |
| 46' | 🟨 | Marek Hamšík · SSC Napoli |
| 50' | 🟨 | Jasmin Kurtić · Spal |
| 61' | 🟨 | Marko Rog · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| coach days | 235.00 | 1482.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 6.14 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1960.45 | 1596.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.07 | -5.07 |
| eye test v1 | 1.10 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| league points | 38.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.38 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.61 | 1.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.22 | 27.70 |
| state index | 1.70 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | 0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |