← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 45% | 48% | 2.19 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.28 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 26% | 24% | 3.78 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Germán Pezzella · ACF Fiorentina |
| 42' | 🟨 | Vitor Hugo · ACF Fiorentina |
| 62' | 🟨 | Edimilson Fernandes · ACF Fiorentina |
| 73' | ⚽ | Federico Chiesa · ACF Fiorentina |
| 74' | 🟨 | Federico Chiesa · ACF Fiorentina |
| 77' | 🟨 | Suso · AC Milan |
| 78' | 🟨 | Alessio Romagnoli · AC Milan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diego Laxalt · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 416.00 | 569.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1776.59 | 1751.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.96 | -5.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.91 | 1.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| league points | 27.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.56 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 24.85 | 24.89 |
| state index | 0.54 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |