← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 53% | 44% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.82 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 22% | 31% | 4.41 | value: +36% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero · Genoa CFC |
| 12' | 🟨 | José Luis Palomino · Atalanta BC |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Rafael Tolói · Genoa CFC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Domenico Criscito · Genoa CFC |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Duván Zapata · Atalanta BC |
| 67' | ⚽ | Darko Lazović · Genoa CFC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Esteban Rolón · Genoa CFC |
| 81' | 🟨 | José Luis Palomino · Atalanta BC |
| 81' | 🟥 | José Luis Palomino · Atalanta BC |
| 88' | ⚽ | Krzysztof Piątek · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Rafael Tolói · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 21.00 | 934.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1486.28 | 1701.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.57 | 15.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| league points | 16.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.80 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.56 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.12 | 1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.47 |
| state index | -0.87 | 0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.72 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |