← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianpaolo Calvarese, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 40% | 44% | 2.42 | value: +6% |
| Sampdoria win | 32% | 30% | 3.07 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ (pen) | Manuel Pasqual · Empoli |
| 18' | 🟨 | Joachim Andersen · Sampdoria |
| 32' | 🟨 | Afriyie Acquah · Empoli |
| 34' | 🟨 | Francesco Caputo · Empoli |
| 41' | ⚽ | Gastón Ramírez · Sampdoria |
| 69' | ⚽ | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 70' | 🟨 | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 76' | ⚽ | Francesco Caputo · Empoli |
| 82' | 🟨 | Albin Ekdal · Sampdoria |
| 85' | 🟨 | Antonino La Gumina · Empoli |
| 87' | ⚽ | Gianluca Caprari · Sampdoria |
| 88' | 🟨 | Gianluca Caprari · Sampdoria |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gianluca Caprari · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 12 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 51.00 | 904.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1573.41 | 1588.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.81 | 20.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.56 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.90 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| league points | 16.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 6.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.62 | 0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 22.98 |
| state index | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.23 | 1.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |