← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabrizio Pasqua, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 70% | 71% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 4.94 | fair |
| Chievo win | 10% | 12% | 9.47 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Sofian Kiyine · Chievo |
| 39' | ⚽ | Ivan Perisic · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 41' | 🟨 | Përparim Hetemaj · Chievo |
| 53' | 🟨 | João Mário · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 59' | 🟨 | Marcelo Brozović · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 61' | 🟨 | Nicola Rigoni · Chievo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sergio Pellissier · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | FC Internazionale Milano |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 51.00 | 569.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1440.48 | 1739.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.23 | -10.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| league points | 7.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 16.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.44 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | 1.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.00 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.53 |
| state index | -0.90 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |