← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 64% | 67% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 18% | 4.53 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 15% | 14% | 6.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Ervin Zukanović · Genoa CFC |
| 17' | ⚽ | Krzysztof Piątek · Genoa CFC |
| 31' | ⚽ | Federico Fazio · AS Roma |
| 33' | ⚽ | Oscar Hiljemark · Genoa CFC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Justin Kluivert · AS Roma |
| 47' | 🟨 | Nicolò Zaniolo · AS Roma |
| 59' | ⚽ | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
| 87' | 🟨 | Patrik Schick · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Esteban Rolón · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 563.00 | 15.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1744.88 | 1489.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.49 | -14.83 |
| eye test v1 | 0.99 | -1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| league points | 21.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 66.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 34.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.56 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.86 | -2.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 24.29 | — |
| state index | 0.62 | -0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | -1.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |